The coming week will be rather thin for data and all eyes are likely to remain firmly fixed on the bond market, where despite the Fed’s apparent lack of concern about higher yields, the US10Y looks to me as though it can head towards 1.7/1.8% before it runs into any real headwinds. We shall see. As far as the calendar is concerned, apart from the China Trade Balance for February which has already been released, there is very little on the agenda.  The data was pretty much upbeat and continues to underline the post Covid recovery.  China’s February exports grew at a record pace in the  January-February period,  with exports jumping sharply, up 60.6% from a year earlier and easily beating of analysts forecast of a 38.9% surge. Imports rose by 22%, above forecasts of 15%. This will likely underpin the Aud$ on Monday, but there is very little on the calendar and most eyes will be on the stock market rally, that will be underpined by the US Senate passing the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill on Sunday.  Tuesday’s focus will be on the EU Q4 GDP, while some secondary NZ and Australian data are also due (NZ Mfg Sales, Preliminary Business Confidence/Activity Outlook, Australian New Home Sales and NAB Business Conditions/Confidence). Wednesday will be a bit busier with inflation figures (February) to come from China and the US, while the RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe will be speaking early in the session. Thursday will see the ECB Meeting, and while rates are likely to remain on hold, the Bank has been very dovish in its recent outlook and seem likely to remain so, which may put further pressure on the Euro. The week will wind up quietly, with just the German CPI and the US PPI figures, both for February, to provide any real interest. Overall, higher bond yields seems to be the gameplan again for the coming few days, thus driving a firmer US$ and lower stocks, which seem likely to be weighed down by the increasingly heavy Nasdaq. Gold will probably test new trend lows as well. Have a good week.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: China Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange Reserves , Japan Current Account, Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index, Eco Watchers Survey, Trade Balance, German Industrial Production, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, BOE Governor Bailey Speech, US Wholesale Inventories

Tue: Japan GDP, NZ Mfg Sales, Preliminary Business Confidence/Activity Outlook, Australian New Home Sales, NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, German Trade Balance, Current Account, EU Q4 GDP, Employment Change, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory,

Wed: NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales, Australian WBC Consumer Confidence, RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe Speech, China CPI/PPI, Foreign Direct Investment, US CPI, Monthly Budget Statement, BOC Interest Rate Decision, EIA Weekly Crude Stocks Change

Thur: NZ Food Price Index, Japan PPI, Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation, ECB Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference/Statement,

Fri: NZ Business PMI, UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production, GDP, Trade Balance, Goods Trade Balance, NIESR GDP Estimate, German CPI/HICP, EU Industrial Production, US PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index,

1 HourOversold – Turning higher?Turning LowerTurning HigherNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning HigherTurning Higher
4 HourDown – OversoldUp – OverboughtDownPossible Topping FormationDown – Bullish DivergencePossible Basing Formation
1 DayNeutral – Turning Lower?UpTurning LowerUpTurning Lower?Turning Lower?
1 WeekTurning Lower?Neutral – Turning Higher?Possible Topping FormationTurning HigherPossible Topping FormationPossible Topping Formation
1 HourTurning LowerTurning HigherTurning HigherBullish DivergenceTurning HigherUp
4 HourPossible Topping FormationOversold – Turning higher?Turning NeutralPossible Basing FormationTurning LowerUp – Overbought
1 DayNeutral – Turning Higher?Neutral – Turning Lower?Turning NeutralDownUpNeutral – Turning Higher?
1 WeekTurning Higher?Possible Topping FormationPossible Topping FormationTurning LowerNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning Higher
1 HourNeutralTurning NeutralNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning NeutralNeutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Lower?
4 HourTurning NeutralNeutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Higher?Turning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning Neutral
1 DayTurning Higher?Turning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning Neutral
1 WeekNeutral – Turning Higher?Turning Lower?Turning NeutralTurning HigherTurning LowerNeutral

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