The coming week will be busy throughout, beginning on Monday with the global manufacturing PMIs and the German Inflation data for February. The main event on Tuesday will be the RBA Meeting at which no change will be made to monetary policy although the Statement is likely to acknowledge the recent increase in bond yields and the possibility for inflation growing at a faster rate than previously expected. Wednesday will feature the Services PMIs while Thursday will see the Australian Trade Balance and Retail Sales figures for January. The main event of the week will be the US Unemployment data and NFP numbers, but the real focus seems set to remain on the bond market and the rapidly rising US yields, where the 10Y seems set to run towards 1.7% and possibly higher. If that turns out to be the case it is going to be a major test for the Fed, so expect plenty of soundbites coming from the various board members through the week.
Note that since the video was made, the US Senate has passed the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package over the weekend – and the President has urged the Senate to take quick action to implement it. This could see a bounce in the stock markets and a weaker US$ on Monday as US traders arrive, with the prospect of increased liquidity to be injected into the economy in the near future. The early interbank FX pricing though is pretty much unchanged from the Friday close so there may be little/no reaction at this stage.
Also note that the China PMIs for February were released over the weekend, generally lower than expectations but still in expansionary mode.
- Manufacturing 50.6 vs. expected 51.1, prior 51.3
- Non-manufacturing 51.4 vs. expected 52.1, prior 52.4
- Composite 51.6 vs. prior 52.8
Economic data highlights will include:
Mon: Global Mfg PMIs (Australia, Japan, EU, UK, US), Australian TD Inflation, Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes, Ciaxin China Mfg PMI, RBA Commodity Index, German CPI/HICP, US ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid, Fed’s Williams Speech
Tue: NZ Terms of Trade, Australian Building Permits, Current Account, RBA Interest Rate Decision/Statement, German Retail Sales, Unemployment, EU CPI, US ISM NY Business Conditions, Total Vehicle Sales, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Global Dairy Trade Index
Wed: NZ Building Permits, Commodity Price Index, Australian Q4 GDP, Global Services PMIs (Australia, China, Japan, EU, UK, US), EU PPI, US ADP Jobs data, ISM Services Global PMI
/Prices Paid, EIA Weekly Crude Stocks Change
Thur: NA Business Confidence, Activity Outlook, Australian Trade Balance, Retail Sales, EU Economic Bulletin, EU Retail Sales, Unemployment, US weekly jobless claims, Factory Orders,
Fri: German Factory Orders, US Headline rate (exp 6.4%)/NFP (exp +110K), Average Hourly Earnings (+5.1%), Average Weekly Hours (34.9), Consumer Credit Change.
|1 Hour||Down – Oversold||Up – Bearish Divergence||Turning Higher||Turning Higher?||Down – Oversold||Down – Oversold|
|4 Hour||Turning Lower?||Up||Down||Neutral – Turning Higher?||Down||Turning Lower|
|1 Day||Turning Neutral||Turning Higher||Possible Topping Formation||Turning Higher||Turning Lower?||Turning Neutral|
|1 Week||Neutral – Turning Lower?||Neutral – Turning Higher?||Up – Overbought||Turning Higher?||Possible Topping Formation||Possible Topping Formation|
|1 Hour||Up – Overbought||Neutral – Turning Lower?||Turning Higher?||Possible Basing Formation||Possible Basing Formation||Turning Lower|
|4 Hour||Up||Turning Lower||Neutral – Turning Lower?||Down||Turning Lower?||Down|
|1 Day||Neutral||Neutral – Turning Lower?||Turning Neutral||Turning Lower?||Turning Neutral||Possible Topping Formation|
|1 Week||Possible Basing Formation||Possible Topping Formation||Possible Topping Formation||Turning Lower||Turning Neutral||Turning Higher|
|1 Hour||Neutral – Turning Lower?||Turning Lower?||Up – Overbought||Down – Oversold||Up – Overbought||Bullish Divergence|
|4 Hour||Turning Lower||Turning Neutral||Turning Higher?||Turning Lower?||Turning Higher||Down|
|1 Day||Neutral – Turning Higher?||Possible Basing Formation||Turning Neutral||Possible Topping Formation||Neutral – Turning Higher?||Neutral – Turning Lower?|
|1 Week||Neutral – Turning Higher?||Neutral – Turning Lower?||Turning Neutral||Turning Higher?||Turning Lower||Turning Neutral|