8 Feb: Weekly Forex Forecast: US$/Majors, FX Crosses, Stocks, Metals, Oil (WTI)

The next session or two may see further mild  US$ weakness although buying dips, if they occur, seems to be the medium term game plan given that the longer term charts hint at an underlying demand for the dollar.

Stocks appear to head further into “blue-sky” territory although much will depend on the outcome of the stimulus package in the US, which will be the main point of focus in the coming week. Note that the longer term charts are showing signs of bearish divergence.

I think WTI is set to test $60pb at some stage, while the metals look to be choppy, with the longer term Gold charts still looking heavy.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: Japan Current Account, Eco Watchers Survey, German Industrial Production, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey

Tue: Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, China Trade Balance, German Trade Balance, Current Account, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Wed: Australian WBC Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Japan PPI, China CPI/PPI, German CPI/HICP,  UK NIESR GDP Estimate, US CPI, Fed Chair Powell Speech

Thur: NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales, Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation, China Foreign Direct Investment, China NY commences,

Fri: NZ Business PMI, Food Price Index, UK GDP, Trade Balance, Manufacturing Production, EU Industrial Production, US Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Feds Williams Speech