Despite more terrible data from the US, both the stockmarkets and the US$ have ended stronger at the end of Thursday trade, as traders seem to prefer to look beyond the current numbers and to concentrate instead on the possible re-opening of the US – and the global – economies. Indeed, in after hours trading in the US, in the early NZ/Australian time zone, the US indices have made further gains, adding around another 0.5% in advance of Donald Trump’s daily update on the coronavirus issue, with hopes that he will announce a partial ending to the current lockdown.
The weekly US jobless claims climbed by another 5.2 million last week, taking the 4week total to 22 million and eliminating nearly all of the 22.5 million jobs created since the GFC of 2008/09. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was no better, in falling to a reading of -56.6 (exp -30), to the lowest reading since reading since July 1980. The housing data was equally bad, where the monthly Building Permits fell by 6.8% and the Housing Starts by -22.3%.
Stocks have ended a volatile session up by 0.14% (DJI)/0.58%(S+P) although the Nasdaq ended 1.7% higher, led by Netflix which rose to an all time high as more people turn to the streaming service to pass the time during the government-imposed lockdown measures. On the other hand, the DJI was held back by the airlines, as travel has more or less died for the time being. United Airlines fell by 11%, American Airlines dropped 10% and Southwest Airlines slipped 6.5%.
The US$ had a good day as traders preferred its safe haven aspect and the DXY is now back above 100.00, with the Euro under particular pressure as the coronavirus issues continue to impact heavily in the EU.
The metals were choppy but little changed on 24 hours ago, while the same applies to oil, where WTI is trading just below 20.00pb.
Looking ahead to Friday, there will be plenty of China data due, with the focus to be on the Q1 GDP (exp -9.9%qq, -6.5%yy) but also to include the monthly Retail Sales (exp -10%mm), Fixed Asset Investment (exp -15.1%mm) and Industrial Production (exp -7.3%mm) as well as the usual Press Conference. That aside, the NZ Business PMI will kick things off today (exp 50.6) , with the other Asian data to come from Japan (Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Tertiary Industry Index). The rest of the day will be fairly empty, with little data to come from the US, while from the EU the focus will be on the March CPI (exp 0.5%mm, 0.7%yy). Have a good weekend.
Economic data highlights will include:
Fri: IMF Meeting, China GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Press Conference, Japan Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Tertiary Industry Index, EU CPI
Market moves, in brief:
FX: DXY 100.10 (+0.52%)
Bonds: US10Y; 0.629% (-1.33%), German 10Y; -0.474% (-2.47%), UK 10Y; +0.298% (-1.23%), Australian 10Y; 0.850% (-7.90%), NZ 10Y; 0.946% (-6.53 %), China 10Y; 2.510% (-1.61%)
Stock Indices: DJI; +0.14%, S+P; +0.58%, NASDAQ; +1.66%, EUStoxx50; 0.15%, FTSE100; +0.55%, Shanghai Composite; +0.31%, ASX200: +1.65%
Metals: Gold $1718 oz (+0.14%), Silver $15.53 oz (+0.43%), Copper $2.3095 lb (+0.59%), Iron Ore $19.78 per tonne (NYMEX) (-1.78%),
Oil: WTI $19.78 pb (-1.88%)
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