Despite more terrible data from the US, both the stockmarkets and the US$ have ended stronger at the end of Thursday trade, as traders seem to prefer to look beyond the current numbers and to concentrate instead on the possible re-opening of the US – and the global – economies. Indeed, in after hours trading in the US, in the early NZ/Australian time zone, the US indices have made further gains, adding around another 0.5% in advance of Donald Trump’s daily update on the coronavirus issue, with hopes that he will announce a partial ending to the current lockdown.

The weekly US jobless claims climbed by another 5.2 million last week, taking the 4week total to 22 million and eliminating nearly all of the 22.5 million jobs created since the GFC of 2008/09. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was no better, in falling to a reading of -56.6 (exp -30), to the lowest reading since reading since July 1980. The housing data was equally bad, where the monthly Building Permits fell by 6.8% and the Housing Starts by -22.3%.

Stocks have ended a volatile session up by 0.14% (DJI)/0.58%(S+P) although the Nasdaq ended 1.7% higher, led by Netflix which rose to an all time high as more people turn to the streaming service to pass the time during the government-imposed lockdown measures. On the other hand, the DJI was held back by the airlines, as travel has more or less died for the time being. United Airlines fell by 11%, American Airlines dropped 10% and Southwest Airlines slipped 6.5%.

The US$ had a good day as traders preferred its safe haven aspect and the DXY is now back above 100.00, with the Euro under particular pressure as the coronavirus issues continue to impact heavily in the EU.

The metals were choppy but little changed on 24 hours ago, while the same applies to oil, where WTI is trading just below 20.00pb.

Looking ahead to Friday, there will be plenty of China data due, with the focus to be on the Q1 GDP (exp -9.9%qq, -6.5%yy) but also to include the monthly Retail Sales (exp -10%mm), Fixed Asset Investment (exp -15.1%mm) and Industrial Production (exp -7.3%mm) as well as the usual Press Conference. That aside, the NZ Business PMI will kick things off today (exp 50.6) , with the other Asian data to come from Japan (Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Tertiary Industry Index). The rest of the day will be fairly empty, with little data to come from the US, while from the EU the focus will be on the March CPI (exp 0.5%mm, 0.7%yy). Have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:

Fri: IMF Meeting, China GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Press Conference, Japan Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Tertiary Industry Index, EU CPI

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 100.10 (+0.52%)

Bonds: US10Y; 0.629% (-1.33%), German 10Y; -0.474% (-2.47%), UK 10Y; +0.298% (-1.23%), Australian 10Y; 0.850% (-7.90%), NZ 10Y; 0.946% (-6.53 %), China 10Y; 2.510% (-1.61%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.14%, S+P; +0.58%, NASDAQ; +1.66%, EUStoxx50; 0.15%, FTSE100; +0.55%, Shanghai Composite; +0.31%, ASX200: +1.65%

Metals: Gold $1718 oz (+0.14%), Silver $15.53 oz (+0.43%), Copper $2.3095 lb (+0.59%), Iron Ore $19.78 per tonne (NYMEX) (-1.78%),

Oil: WTI $19.78 pb (-1.88%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0838
Res 1.0850 1.0875 1.0900
Sup 1.0815 1.0790 1.0765
USDJPY: 107.90
Res 108.00 108.25 108.50
Sup 107.55 107.30 107.00
GBPUSD: 1.2457
Res 1.2490 1.2535 1.2575
Sup 1.2405 1.2360 1.2315
USDCHF: 0.9700
Res 0.9715 0.9735 0.9755
Sup 0.9685 0.9665 0.9645
AUDUSD: 0.6321
Res 0.6335 0.6360 0.6385
Sup 0.6275 0.6250 0.6225
NZDUSD: 0.5961
Res 0.5970 0.5990 0.6010
Sup 0.5935 0.5915 0.5895
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2826.78
Res 2845.00 2875.00 2905.00
Sup 2800.00 2765.00 2730.00
DJ30.fs: 23736.00
Res 23850.00 23965.00 24085.00
Sup 23565.00 23405.00 23255.00
SPI200.fs: 5427
Res 5475 5530 5585
Sup 5370 5315 5260
XAUUSD: 1717.31
Res 1725.00 1735.00 1745.00
Sup 1710.00 1700.00 1690.00
XAGUSD: 15.50
Res 15.60 15.75 15.90
Sup 15.30 15.15 15.00
WTI.fs: 19.68
Res 20.25 20.85 21.45
Sup 19.15 18.50 17.90

Trend Table:

EURUSDUSDJPYGBPUSDUSDCHFAUDUSDNZDUSD
1 HourNeutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Higher?Turning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning Higher?Turning Higher?
4 HourTurning Lower?Neutral – Turning Higher?Turning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning Lower?
1 DayNeutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Higher?Turning NeutralTurning Higher?Turning Neutral
1 WeekTurning NeutralNeutralNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning NeutralPossible Basing FormationPossible Basing Formation

 

DXYS+PASX200GOLDSILVEROIL_WTI
1 HourTurning NeutralNeutral – Turning Higher?Turning NeutralNeutralTurning NeutralTurning Neutral
4 HourTurning Higher?Turning NeutralNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning LowerTurning NeutralTurning Neutral
1 DayTurning NeutralUpUpUpUpNeutral
1 WeekNeutral – Turning Higher?Possible Basing FormationOversold – Turning higher?Turning HigherTurning NeutralDown

 

EURJPYEURGBPGBPAUDAUDJPYEURAUDAUDNZD
1 HourNeutral – Turning Higher?Possible Basing FormationTurning Lower?Neutral – Turning Higher?Turning Higher?Turning Higher?
4 HourNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning NeutralTurning NeutralPossible Topping Formation
1 DayNeutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Lower?Neutral – Turning Lower?Turning Higher?Turning LowerUp
1 WeekNeutral – Turning Lower?Turning NeutralPossible Topping FormationPossible Basing FormationPossible Topping FormationNeutral – Turning Higher?

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